Peter Greene at Forbes touts a new study suggesting high school grades are superior to SAT/ACT scores in predicting student outcomes in college.

[Excerpts]

One basic selling point of the SAT and ACT has always been that they are supposed to predict a student’s likely success in college, serving as a sort of audition for colleges (who have a vested interest in admitting students who will succeed).

The value of those traditional tests has been challenged on many grounds, including the idea that they carry a cultural bias. There has also been repeated research showing that high school grade point averages are actually better predictors of college success.

A major 2009 study by William Bowen, Matthew Chingos, and Michale McPherson and published by Princeton University looked at 150,000 students across almost 70 colleges and universities. It considered six year completion rates rather than just freshman year performance. The researchers found that compared to the SAT, high school GPA was 2.5 times more predictive of success at the most selective universities and 10 times more predictive at the least selective schools.

Objections to the SAT and ACT were put to the test in 2020, when COVID disrupted high schools across the country and colleges (including all 8 ivy league schools) dropped testing requirements for admission.

By 2023, the testing optional tide was reversing, and many schools returned to standardized testing requirements. This provided researchers with a unique opportunity to compare results at the same school with and without the test optional approach.

A new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research with lead author Theodore Joyce (Baruch College, CUNY Graduate Center) finds much the same results as the 2009 study. The researchers looked at both pre- and post-COVID cohorts, with a total of over 225,000 students followed. They looked at how well the groups did as freshmen, how many continued for a second year, and college graduation rates. Write the researchers, “Our results underscore the dominance of HSGPA [high school grade point average] as the most important predictor of student success at this public university system.” The paper is clear and direct in its concluding that “high school grades are a vastly superior predictor of student academic success than is the SAT.”

The implications are not just that colleges and universities should give more weight to GPAs than SAT scores. Too often students, parents, and schools worry more about getting into a college than about what the student will do once they are admitted.

If it is high school GPAs that best predict success for students in college, then it follows that the academic preparation behind that GPA best readies students for college completion. When parents spend thousands of dollars for SAT coaching, that is money that could be better spent on academic coaching. High schools should be reminding their students daily that it is their GPA that best predicts their readiness for college, and if college is their goal, then better results from high coursework should be their focus.

 
Here is the abstract from the study (titled 'Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at a Public University System') mentioned above:

Recent studies of Ivy-Plus institutions suggest that standardized test scores (SAT/ACT) are far better predictors of college success than high school grade point average (HS-GPA), prompting a
return to the requirement that test scores be submitted for admission at elite colleges.

We ask whether re-establishing the SAT requirement for admission at a large urban public university system would improve the predictability of academic outcomes. Using administrative data for the 2010-2019 first-year cohorts, we update earlier work of students from public universities as to the relative predictive power of HSGPA and SAT scores on first-year outcomes and graduation rates.

Contrary to findings at elite private institutions, we find that HSGPA is the dominant predictor of academic success in this public system. A one-standard-deviation increase in HSGPA is four to six times more predictive of six-year graduation than a comparable increase in SAT scores. Out-of-sample forecasts for the post-COVID period (2020–2024) confirm that test-optional models relying only on HSGPA experience relatively little loss in predictive accuracy compared to models that include test scores. We conclude that HSGPA remains the most reliable signal of degree completion at broad-access public universities.

 
Inside Higher Ed examines another recent study assessing the impact of test optional admissions on students and admissions officers at two selective public universities.

[Excerpts]

New qualitative research shows that students who were admitted through test-optional admissions—and their professors—generally don’t feel underqualified to attend their institutions, despite claims otherwise from those who oppose the policies.

The team led by Julie Park, a professor of education at the University of Maryland, College Park, and a leading researcher of college admissions, interviewed 57 students, as well as faculty, admissions staff and other stakeholders from two anonymous selective public universities that had test-optional policies when the data was collected. One, dubbed “Southern University” in the report, has since returned to requiring test scores.

“We were really trying to understand how it was affecting students’ experiences, both during the application process, but also on the ground, after the point of enrollment,” Park said. “I think our findings provide a counternarrative to that dominant narrative that test optional is resulting in all these unqualified students who can’t handle college. By and large the students said, ‘We did fine.’ Even staff members said, ‘They did fine.’ Even if they experienced challenges, in the end they were able to get the support they needed.”

The report’s authors say that their findings point toward the benefits of maintaining test-optional policies, especially at public institutions, which have a responsibility to expand access to higher education in their state.

“Test-optional admissions can help expand opportunity for a wide range of students. Students reported test-optional increasing their sense of confidence in applying to institutions. In some cases, students applied to more institutions because of the ability to apply without test scores,” the report reads.

Students who didn't submit test scores noted a number of reasons for their decision, including not having the time or resources to study for the exams. Some also said that counselors and family members discouraged them from submitting unimpressive scores. (Park noted that the number of students who took an admissions test but didn’t submit their scores and the number who simply didn’t take any tests were about equal.)

Admissions officers at Southern University, which has since reinstated its testing requirement, said they saw the test-optional policy as beneficial. They noted that the policy was only reversed due to pressure from the institution’s board, who wanted to follow the Ivy League’s lead.

“I know our administration really does like to have a high average ACT and SAT that we can tout in our press releases and things like that … But I don't know how much understanding they have of how the scores really work and how they can disadvantage certain students,” one midlevel admissions professional told the researchers.

Faculty members at the institutions were more likely to be critical of test-optional policies. Many said they supported the policies due to the historical bias of standardized tests and how they disadvantage students without access to test-preparation resources, but others said that despite their flaws, the tests could be useful for evaluating students. One professor noted that studying for standardized tests helps students with their math, vocabulary and recall skills.

Michael Bastedo, professor of education at the University of Michigan, said that the results are consistent with what admissions professionals typically hear from families.

“Most families seem to like having the autonomy to make that decision after they know what the test scores are going to be. Some faculty are definitely less enthusiastic, especially faculty in STEM, and admissions deans hear from them pretty regularly about going back to required testing,” he wrote in an email to Inside Higher Ed.

“The impact of test-optional policies on student success is still a pretty open question,” he added. “There seem to be a really wide range of outcomes depending on the institution. At Michigan, we didn’t see big differences in success between submitters and non-submitters, but that’s not always the story. Institutions really need to be studying this on a case-by-case basis.”

 
The Admissions Abstract decries 'A Million Unnecessary Test-Takers':

[Excerpts]

About a million students in the Class of 2025 took the SAT® or ACT®, really didn't need to. That’s roughly the population of Jacksonville, Florida. It could be more than a million. Exact numbers are a little tough, because of how various metrics are tracked when it comes to college admissions.

What we know for certain is that 1,245,981 students took the SAT in school in the Class of 2025, while 955,267 students took the ACT in school. There is essentially no overlap in those numbers, because SAT School Day and ACT District Testing are exclusive. In total, 2,201,408 students took either standardized test in school. In total, there were 3,193,492 SAT and ACT test-takers. Some students did take both exams, but their numbers aren't large. We don't have perfectly matching data for who went to selective colleges for 2025-2026 yet. A total of 1,672,811 students enrolled at selective colleges for the 2024-2025 school year.

The specific numbers don't matter much. None shift enough year-to-year to distract from the larger point. About a million students are needlessly taking the SAT or ACT every year. One. Million. Students. About 3.75 million students graduate from high school in America, and over a quarter are being forced to take a standardized test they don't need. Community colleges and four-year colleges with open admissions policies do not require SAT or ACT scores. Any high schooler who knows in junior year they won’t apply to a selective college should not be taking either test.

Taking a morning out of school twice a year to make sure every student takes a test most of them won't need is a complication for high school counselors, teachers, and other staff. Administrators can show they are working at improving outcomes, but it’s a logistical nightmare. At least the students looking at selective schools are getting a standardized test score that can help their application process. Except that every student who does need an SAT or ACT score for college applications is harmed by a million unnecessary test-takers.

For any students looking at applying to selective four-year colleges, the SAT or ACT is absolutely essential. The vast majority of schools evaluate test scores if they are submitted. Only about 7% of schools in our Data Table–available to all paid subscribers–are Test Blind. Largely, it’s the University of California and California State University schools. At pretty much every other college in America, a strong test score can help an applicant be admitted.

What SAT and ACT scores tell college admissions offices is simple. Standardized test scores are an easy to see separator. If every applicant takes them, this separation works for every applicant. A 1530 is better than a 1490, a 26 is better than a 24, and a 1010 is better than a 980. Forget whether the tests assess actual academic abilities (not really) or whether they perfectly distinguish students test-taking abilities (they don’t since score reports offer a range), the score is the score. In a test-required process, everyone has a standard number to compare. In a test optional process, the ones whose score won't look good are not going to submit.

 
Jon Marcus of EducationNext has written an article titled 'The Classic Learning Test Takes Aim at the SAT–ACT Duopoly'. He asserts that the number of students taking the CLT has reached 300,000.

[Excerpts]

The floodwaters raged. Infuriated by the ceaseless clamor from the crowded city of Shurrupak on the banks of the Euphrates River, the gods had resolved to purge the masses from it. Only a few mortals, tipped off ahead of time, managed to escape in a boat and bear witness.

The ancient Mesopotamian Epic of Gilgamesh is believed to be the first of the many flood myths in literature and religion, including the story of Noah and his ark. It’s also an example of the reading excerpts included on the nation’s fastest-growing college admissions exam.

Like high school students who take the SAT and ACT, those sitting for the Classic Learning Test, or CLT, are challenged to answer multiple-choice questions about passages like this. But what sets it apart is that the CLT is based entirely on classical texts.

This aligns it with a growing classical education movement in charter and Christian schools, in some colleges, and among families who home-school. The CLT has also been discovered by conservative politicians who see it as a lever to re-emphasize the teaching of classical and Western concepts over newer and often controversial ones.

The test “seeks to enhance the way young people are educated” by giving schools and home-schooling families “a fresh incentive to focus on enduring ideas,” according to Classic Learning Initiatives, the for-profit company behind the CLT.

Now the CLT is surging, from an average of about 3,000 tests taken annually to 300,000 last year, according to the company. That’s still fewer than a tenth as many tests as are administered annually by the ACT and SAT. But it’s enough to capture the attention of admissions directors and scholarship providers—which is likely to continue feeding the momentum.

There remain questions—notably, but not solely, raised by College Board—about whether enough is known about the CLT as an assessment tool to trust it. But in addition to support from red-state politicians, there is much that’s working in the new test’s favor.

For instance, while universities and colleges have largely continued their test-optional policies since the end of the pandemic as they struggle to fill seats, the Trump administration has exerted pressure on them to drop consideration of characteristics such as race in admissions and to return to “objective criteria” like the ones standardized test providers and their supporters say they measure.

“The current administration is being increasingly clear that colleges that want to receive federal funding are not going to be able to continue to be test optional,” says Jeremy Wayne Tate, cofounder and president of CLT.

Meanwhile, homeschooling and enrollment in conservative Christian schools are both up, expanding the CLT’s core market. And employers want the kinds of critical thinking skills from prospective hires that advocates of classical education say it teaches.

By far, the CLT has received its biggest boost in Florida, whose Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, banned an AP course in African American studies for allegedly including content the state does not allow to be taught there, including critical race theory. “Who elected them?” DeSantis said of College Board. “Are there other people that provide services?”

The board of governors of the state’s university system—the second largest in the country and the biggest to still require standardized tests for admission—swiftly answered that question by agreeing to accept the CLT alongside the ACT and the SAT. This came over the objections of the faculty representative, University of Florida business professor Amanda Phalin, who said the CLT lacked “empirical evidence that it is of the same quality” as the other two tests.

Within a year, the number of CLT test-takers in Florida shot up to 120,000, while the number sitting for the SAT dropped by 11 percent between 2023–24 and 2024–25 and the proportion of high school students taking the SAT fell from 95 percent to 87 percent.

A small number of mostly selective universities, including seven out of eight of the Ivies, have resumed or announced they will resume requiring standardized tests. But most admissions offices have shifted to emphasizing grade-point averages, class rank, extracurricular activities, and other measures. This, in turn, has led to concern about grade inflation—a development that the testing companies have not coincidentally studied closely and reported. The average GPA rose from 3.27 to 3.38 from 1998 through 2016, according to an analysis led by a College Board researcher, and the proportion of high school students graduating with an A average went from less than 39 percent to nearly half, even as SAT scores fell. A separate ACT report says the average high school GPA increased from 3.17 to 3.36 from 2010 to 2021. These trends have continued since the pandemic, newer research shows, including studies by investigators at the University of Washington Center for Education Data and Research and the Education Policy Institute at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.

These long-running debates continue to play out. Do grades say more about applicants’ abilities than tests do? Do tests benefit the wealthy? Do they predict success in college? Yet another study last year, by scholars at Brown and Dartmouth universities, found that ACT and SAT scores do, in fact, correlate with the academic performance of first-year students at selective colleges.

But test-taking has declined. About two million students in the high school class of 2025 took the SAT, below the more than 2.2 million who did in 2019, the last year before the pandemic; during the same period, the ACT dropped from nearly 1.8 million test-takers to fewer than 1.4 million.

Last year the research arm of the Educational Testing Service, which administers the SAT for College Board, not surprisingly proclaimed that “the future of assessment contains challenges.”

That’s the backdrop against which the Classic Learning Test was launched.

Other red states have followed Florida’s lead. Arkansas in March 2025 required state-funded universities to accept the CLT. Bills have been introduced in Tennessee and West Virginia to do the same thing. In Texas, the Higher Education Coordinating Board was directed to study the possibility of having public universities accept the CLT in admissions. Oklahoma and Wyoming ordered that the test be considered for state scholarship programs. Indiana’s governor signed a bill in March requiring the state’s public universities to accept it for admission. In Congress, a bill cosponsored by Republican U.S. Representative Lauren Boebert, the Promoting Classical Learning Act, would require the test to also be accepted by tribal colleges and federally run schools.

 
The Classic Learning Test had a major win recently when Arkansas legislators approved a potentially large contract for the test to be administered statewide to all students who choose to take the test.

[Excerpts]

The Arkansas Legislative Council recently voted to approve a contract worth up to $12 million to offer the Classic Learning Test (CLT) in high schools across the state for the next four years.

The contract is between the Arkansas Department of Education and Maryland-based Classic Learning Initiatives LLC. The contract begins on July 1 and ends in June 2030, with an extension available through June 2033.

Like the ACT or SAT, the CLT is a standardized test used for college admissions in the United States to measure high school students’ readiness for college. According to the CLT website, the test is “…designed to serve students from a variety of educational backgrounds…our assessments emphasize timeless academic skills and promote critical and logical thinking.”

The cost will cover students’ testing fees. The online forms of the Classic Learning Test and its ninth and 10th grade version cost $34.50, while paper forms cost $44.50.

The actual amount that Arkansas will pay Classic Learning Initiatives will depend on how many students take the Classic Learning Test instead of the ACT or SAT.

 
The CLT is also moving closer to becoming a statewide option in Ohio:

An alternative to the SAT and ACT college entrance exams that’s been favored by conservatives could be coming as an option in Ohio. A bill to add the Classic Learning Test as a college admissions exam offered by Ohio high schools is under consideration by the Senate, after passing the House earlier this year.

House Bill 326 would allow the CLT to be used along with the SAT and ACT, along with "any other valid, reliable, nationally norm-referenced exam used for college admission". The CLT is similar to the ACT or SAT, but the reading sections of the CLT include works from Christian saints, philosophers and scholars.

Rep. Kevin Ritter (R-Marietta) is one of the joint sponsors of the bill, and said the CLT is proven, reliable and valid. He said university systems in Indiana, North Carolina and Georgia have added the CLT as an admissions alternative.

"The CLT is the preferred alternative for the homeschool and private school communities because it aligns with the traditional education values of logic, reasoning, and moral philosophy," Ritter said on the House floor in February. "That means Ohio institutions will accept this test will have a distinct advantage in recruiting out-of-state students who choose this assessment, allowing Ohio school districts to administer the CLT alongside other standardized assessments for 11th graders."

Democrats were mostly opposed, including Rep. Sean Brennan (D-Parma), a former high school teacher. He said colleges and universities are largely moving away from standardized tests for admission.

"The tests often reflect the student's access to resources like private tutoring or test prep, which are very expensive, I might add, more than their actual readiness for college," Brennan said. "Why would we codify another standardized test into statute? If anything, we should be moving in the opposite direction toward recognizing that learning, creativity, and potential can't be captured in a few hours in a multiple choice exam."

Brennan added only 12 private colleges in Ohio use the CLT.

All House Republicans and three Democrats voted for the bill. It’s now in the Senate.